Seasonal Freight Rate Trends 2025: When to Lock in Capacity for Cross-Border Shipping

If you're shipping freight from Canada to the United States, timing is everything. The difference between booking your shipment during slow season versus peak season can mean 30-50% cost swings—and that's if you can even find capacity when you need it.

This guide breaks down the seasonal freight patterns for 2025, shows you when to lock in rates, and helps you avoid the costly mistakes most shippers make.

What's Happening Right Now (November 2025)

The freight market in late 2025 is telling an unusual story. Volumes are the highest they've been since 2021, and peak season is expected to last longer than usual, driven by tariff-related frontloading and holiday shipments.

However, there's a twist: Peak demand pulled forward this year, with record volumes on imported containers occurring in July, meaning the majority of holiday season inventory is already positioned in warehouse distribution markets ready for final-mile delivery.

What this means for Canadian shippers:

• Traditional Q4 peak season has been "smoothed out"

• Capacity is tighter than normal but not at panic levels

• Rates are elevated but stabilizing

• The window for locking in competitive rates is NOW (before December crunch)

The Four Freight Seasons: A Complete Breakdown

Q1: Slow Season (January - March)

Market Conditions: The first quarter is traditionally the slowest for freight, as consumer demand drops after the holidays and many businesses focus on reducing inventory rather than restocking, resulting in fewer available loads.

What Happens:

• Lowest freight rates of the year

• Excess truck capacity available

• Easy to find carriers on short notice

• Carriers competing for freight = better negotiating power for shippers

Typical Rate Changes:

• 15-25% lower than peak season

• Ontario → California: $4,200-$5,000 (vs. $5,500-$6,500 peak)

• Spot market softer than contract rates

Strategic Actions:

• Negotiate annual contract rates in Q1 when carriers are hungry for business

• Lock in fixed rates for the year ahead

• Build relationships with carriers before you need them

• Clean up logistics operations - this quiet period is ideal for process improvements

• Test new carriers/brokers when stakes are lower

  
  

Avoid:

• Assuming these rates will last (they won't)

• Waiting until Q2 to plan for peak season

• Forgetting to factor in Valentine's Day/Presidents Day surges

Q2: Building Season (April - June)

Market Conditions: Spring and early summer bring a spike in agricultural shipments as fresh produce moves from farms to distribution centers and grocers.

What Happens:

• Rates begin climbing from Q1 lows

• Reefer (refrigerated) capacity tightens first

• Produce season creates regional hotspots (California, Florida, Texas outbound)

• Dry van still relatively available

  
  

Typical Rate Changes:

• 10-15% above Q1 levels

• Reefer premiums increase 15-20%

• Ontario → California: $4,800-$5,500

  
  

Strategic Actions:

• Book reefer capacity in advance if shipping food/temp-controlled

• Avoid California outbound lanes (produce season = tight capacity)

• Finalize peak season contracts by end of Q2

• Front-load inventory if possible before Q3 rush

• Communicate volume forecasts to carriers/brokers

Watch For:

• Memorial Day weekend (last Monday in May) - reduced capacity

• Cross-border delays increase (summer vacation season = longer customs waits)

• Heat-related equipment failures in southern US

  
  

Q3: Pre-Peak/Peak Season (July - September)

Market Conditions: Freight peak season typically falls between August and October, when retailers ramp up for back-to-school sales and early holiday inventory, leading to the busiest time of year with capacity tightening nationwide and premium pricing.

2025 Exception: This year's peak season came and went largely due to retailers frontloading imports ahead of reciprocal tariffs taking effect. The traditional September-October surge happened in July instead.

What Typically Happens (Normal Years):

• Rates spike 25-40% above Q1

• Capacity extremely tight

• Lead times extend from 3-5 days to 7-10 days

• Retailers desperate to stock for holidays

Typical Rate Changes:

• Ontario → California: $5,800-$7,000+ (vs. $4,200-$5,000 Q1)

• Drop trailer premiums increase ($250 → $400+)

• Detention and accessorial charges escalate

Strategic Actions:

• Book freight 1-2 weeks in advance (vs. 3-5 days normal)

• Accept higher rates or lose capacity - low-ball offers won't get trucks

• Use contract carriers first (save relationships)

• Consider alternative modes (rail intermodal for non-urgent freight)

• Communicate proactively with customers about potential delays

Critical Dates:

• Labor Day (first Monday September) - Capacity crunch begins

• Back-to-school peak: Mid-August through early September

• Holiday inventory push: September-October

Avoid:

• Waiting until last minute to book freight

• Shopping for "cheap" rates (you'll get what you pay for)

• Assuming your regular carrier has capacity

• Ignoring weather forecasts (hurricanes, early snow)

Q4: Holiday Peak/Year-End (October - December)

Market Conditions: The year closes with the holiday shipping season, which brings a sharp increase in time-sensitive and last-mile deliveries with elevated rates continuing, but disruptions from winter weather and tight delivery windows increase operational risk.

What Happens:

• Peak rates continue (or exceed) Q3 levels

• Retail distribution centers overwhelmed

• Appointment scheduling difficult (book 5-7 days out)

• Winter weather adds complications

• Capacity extremely tight through Thanksgiving

Typical Rate Changes:

• Rates remain elevated through Black Friday/Cyber Monday

• Begin softening after mid-December

• By Christmas week, rates start dropping toward Q1 levels

Strategic Actions:

• Prioritize critical shipments - what MUST arrive on time?

• Build extra transit time (weather delays inevitable)

• Book delivery appointments immediately when freight picked up

• Consider drop trailer for retail DCs (reduces detention risk)

• Monitor weather forecasts closely (I-80 closures, ice storms)

  
  

Critical Dates:

• Black Friday/Cyber Monday (late November): Absolute peak

• Thanksgiving week: Many facilities closed/reduced hours

• Week of December 15: Last push before Christmas

• Christmas-New Year: Capacity opens, rates drop

Avoid:

• Scheduling deliveries during Thanksgiving week

• Assuming "it's winter, we'll be fine" (weather WILL delay freight)

• Cutting it close on retail PO deadlines

• Ignoring carrier holiday schedules

  
  

2025-2026 Forecast: What's Different This Year

Tariff-Driven Volatility

As consumer caution and tariff-related uncertainty continue, this softer demand will impact the freight market with lower volumes across parcel, less-than-truckload, and truckload segments, softer spot market pricing, and continued pressure on carriers to prioritize contracted freight.

What this means:

• Spot rates lower than typical for late 2025

• BUT capacity can tighten quickly if tariff policies shift

• Contract rates more valuable than ever

Extended Peak Season

Volumes are the highest they've been since 2021, and peak season is expected to last longer than usual.

Impact on shippers:

• Traditional "peak season ends after Thanksgiving" may not apply

• Capacity constraints could extend into January 2026

• Budget for higher rates through Q1 2026

Regional Variations

The Northeast tells a different story, with capacity becoming more difficult in certain pockets, particularly for freight moving southbound into Florida, and rates expected to remain at elevated levels broadly near the highest seen in 2025.

Key takeaway: 

Not all lanes are created equal. Ontario → Florida may be tighter than Ontario → California right now.

When to Lock in Capacity: Your Action Calendar

NOW (November 2025)

Action: Secure December shipment capacity immediately

• Book critical holiday freight now

• Negotiate Q1 2026 contract rates

• Confirm carrier/broker relationships

Why: Thanksgiving through New Year is crunch time. Book now or scramble later.

December 2025

Action: Plan for Q1 2026 slow season

• Finalize annual contract rates for 2026

• Lock in fixed pricing before market potentially tightens in Q2

• Forecast full-year volume needs

Why: Carriers are most flexible in January-February. Negotiate when you have leverage.

January-February 2026

Action: Execute annual contracts and build carrier relationships

• Sign annual agreements with 2-3 carriers/brokers

• Establish volume commitments for preferential pricing

• Test backup carriers during slow period

Why: This quieter season is ideal for fleet maintenance, business planning, and forming new broker relationships.

March-April 2026

Action: Prepare for produce season and Q2 build

• Confirm reefer capacity if needed

• Front-load inventory before summer if possible

• Communicate Q2/Q3 volume forecasts to carriers

Why: Rates begin climbing. Book ahead to avoid May-June tightness.

May-June 2026

Action: Lock in peak season (Q3) capacity

• Negotiate fixed rates for August-October period

• Secure committed capacity with primary carriers

• Establish backup plans for critical lanes

Why: Peak season planning starts 90 days out. Wait until August and you're too late.

July-September 2026

Action: Execute peak season strategy

• Use contract carriers first

• Accept market rates for spot freight

• Monitor tariff/policy changes that could impact capacity

Why: You're in peak season. Decisions made months ago pay off (or haunt you) now.

October-December 2026

Action: Navigate holiday peak and plan for 2027

• Focus on critical shipments only

• Build extra transit time for weather

• Begin 2027 contract negotiations in December

Why: Close the year strong and set yourself up for 2027.

Contract vs. Spot: Which Strategy Works Best?

Contract Rates (Fixed Annual Agreements)

Best For:

• Regular shippers (5+ loads per month)

• Predictable lanes (same origins/destinations)

• Budget certainty

• Peak season protection

Advantages:

• Locked-in pricing (no surprises)

• Priority capacity during tight markets

• Established carrier relationships

• Better payment terms (Net 30 vs. prepay)

Typical Savings:

• 10-15% lower than spot market during peak season

• Break-even vs. spot in slow season

• Overall 5-10% annual savings

When to Negotiate: Q1 (January-March) when carriers need commitments

Spot Market (Per-Load Pricing)

Best For:

• Occasional shippers (< 5 loads per month)

• Unpredictable lanes/volumes

• Flexibility to shop rates

• Taking advantage of soft markets

Advantages: No volume commitments, Can be cheaper in slow season, Flexibility to switch carriers, No long-term obligations

Disadvantages: 25-40% higher rates during peak, No guaranteed capacity, Must rebuild relationships each time, Price volatility.

When to Use: Q1-Q2 when rates are soft and capacity plentiful

Hybrid Approach (Recommended)

Strategy:

• Contract 60-70% of your anticipated volume

• Use spot market for the remaining 30-40%

• Gives you predictability + flexibility

Example:

• Ship 20 loads/month Ontario → US

• Contract for 12-15 loads/month at fixed rate

• Buy 5-8 loads/month on spot market

Benefits: Protected during peak season (contract), Can capitalize on soft markets (spot), Backup capacity if contract carrier short, Negotiating leverage ("I'm giving you 70% of my business")

Cost-Saving Strategies by Season

Q1 Strategies (Slow Season)

• Negotiate aggressively Carriers are desperate for freight. Push for 10-15% below their opening offer.

• Lock in annual contracts Secure fixed pricing for the year while you have leverage.

• Test new carriers Low-risk time to try alternative brokers/carriers.

• Consolidate shipments Can you combine multiple LTL into FTL? Rates are low enough to justify.

Q2 Strategies (Building Season)

• Book reefer capacity early Don't wait until produce season to find temp-controlled trucks.

• Avoid California outbound If possible, delay shipments from California until Q3 (after produce season).

• Front-load inventory Stock up before Q3 peak if you have warehouse space.

Q3 Strategies (Peak Season)

• Accept market rates Trying to low-ball = no capacity. Pay up or sit on freight.

• Book 1-2 weeks in advance Especially for critical lanes like Ontario → California.

• Use contract carriers first Save your relationships for when you need them.

• Consider intermodal rail 15-20% cheaper, but plan for 7-9 day transit.

Q4 Strategies (Holiday Peak)

• Build extra transit time Weather will delay freight. Plan accordingly.

• Drop trailer when possible Reduces detention risk at overwhelmed DCs.

• Prioritize ruthlessly What MUST ship on time? What can wait until January?

• Monitor weather closely I-80 closures, ice storms, hurricanes = major delays.

Red Flags: When Rates Are About to Spike

Watch These Indicators:

1. News of Tariff Changes 80% of shoppers worry tariffs will increase prices, and policy shifts on tariffs can quickly re-tighten capacity.

2. Port Congestion Reports When you hear about LA/Long Beach or Vancouver delays, rates are about to jump.

3. Weather Forecasts Major hurricanes, early winter storms, extreme heat = capacity disruptions.

4. Fuel Price Spikes Diesel jumps 20%+ = carriers pass costs through immediately.

5. Carrier Announcements If major carriers announce rate increases or capacity reductions, believe them.

6. Your Broker Calling You "Book now before rates go up" isn't always a sales tactic—sometimes it's real advice.

Working with AutoFreight: How We Help You Navigate Seasonal Rates

At AutoFreight Transportation, we help Canadian shippers avoid seasonal rate surprises through proactive planning and transparent communication.

Our Seasonal Rate Management:

Q1 (Slow Season):

• We negotiate our annual carrier contracts

• We pass savings to customers

• We help you lock in fixed pricing for the year

Q2 (Building Season):

• We forecast capacity constraints (produce season, holidays approaching)

• We alert you to book ahead on tight lanes

• We secure reefer capacity before it disappears

Q3 (Peak Season):

• We provide honest market updates (no surprises)

• We prioritize contract customers for capacity

• We find backup carriers when primary is short

Q4 (Holiday Peak):

• We build extra transit time into quotes

• We monitor weather and reroute proactively

• We help you prioritize critical shipments

Contract Rate Programs:

For shippers moving 5+ loads per month:

• Fixed annual pricing on key lanes

• Priority capacity during peak season

• Dedicated account manager

• Quarterly rate reviews

Example Ontario → California Contract:

• Q1-Q2: $5,200 (locked in)

• Q3: $5,200 (save $800 vs. spot market)

• Q4: $5,200 (save $1,000+ vs. spot market)

• Annual savings: $5,000-$10,000+

The Bottom Line

Seasonal freight rate management isn't about finding the cheapest rate—it's about securing capacity when you need it at a predictable price.

Key Takeaways:

1. Rates fluctuate 30-50% throughout the year - Plan accordingly

2. Lock in annual contracts in Q1 when you have negotiating power

3. Book peak season capacity months in advance (May-June for August-October shipping)

4. Accept market rates during peak or risk sitting on freight

5. Build carrier relationships before you need them (Q1-Q2 is relationship-building time)

The freight market in 2025-2026 is more volatile than usual. Shippers who plan proactively, lock in capacity early, and maintain strong carrier relationships will navigate it successfully.

Those who wait until the last minute and shop for the lowest rate every time? They'll be the ones scrambling for trucks at premium prices during peak season.

Ready to Lock in Your 2026 Freight Rates?

At AutoFreight Transportation, we're currently negotiating our 2026 carrier contracts and can extend competitive annual pricing to regular shippers.

Contact us before December 31, 2025 to discuss:

• Fixed annual rates for your key lanes

• Priority capacity commitments for peak season

• Volume discount programs

• Quarterly business reviews

  
  

Get Started:

Email : yash@autofreight.ca 

Phone # 647-704-1289

Don't wait until rates spike in Q2. Let's talk about protecting your freight budget for 2026. Updated: November 2025. Rate forecasts based on current market conditions and historical trends. Actual rates may vary based on specific lanes, equipment needs, and market volatility.